Although these recommendations are yet to be finalized, the next General Election will almost certainly be fought on a redrawn constituency map. Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence. This analysis has drawn on the latest opinion polls that were specific to Wales and Scotland respectively. Across the whole of the UK, the YouGov poll conducted on November 1-2 predicted Labour way out ahead on 50 per cent of the vote (down one point) and the Tories marooned on 25 per cent (up one point). Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats have 9% of the vote (no change), while the Greens have 7% (-1) and Reform UK have 3% of the vote (no change). US ; About ; For business ; . SNP MP apologises over ignorant racial slur, Boris Johnson may have misled parliament on several occasions, Billionaires should not exist Bernie Sanders, Bernie Sanders issues stark warning to Brits over NHS, Fear and Loathing in the New Conservatives, Elevenses: Fear and Loathing in the New Conservatives. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. New projections based on YouGov polling suggest the Conservative Party could be reduced to the UKs fourth-biggest party at the next election. The Tories would be on seven MPs up one despite all the turmoil of the past 12 months with the Lib Dems also up one on five, according to the seat predictor from Electoral Calculus. In results published for the survey taken March 24-25, 2022 . The new offer will see teachers getting a 12.3% increase by April 2023 and it will rise to 14% by 2024. YouGov: 24 Apr 2020 - 27 Apr 2020: 1,095: 25: 15: 6 : 2: 51; Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland: 01 May 2020 - 05 May 2020: 1,086: 26: 17: 5 : 2: 50; Panelbase/Scot Goes Pop: However amidst mounting pressure on Boris Johnsons position in late June, and the drawn out nature of his resignation in early July, the Labour party once extended their lead over the Conservatives in the polls. Combining deep sector expertise with local knowledge to provide you with a deep understanding of your industry. You can unsubscribe whenever you want. In terms of specific adjustments then made to this analysis, Politics.co.uk has assumed that the Green MP Caroline Lucas would continue to hold her safe seat in Brighton Pavilion, and that Sir Lindsay Hoyle would be returned as Speaker for his constituency of Chorley. Redfield and Wilton (26 February) which placed Labour on 51%, the Conservatives on 24%, and the Liberal Democrts on 9%. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland held tomorrow, how would you vote?" We will not share your email address with any third parties. First Minister of Scotland: Runners and Riders. There is a wide variety of timeframes used on this topic. 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Rather than experience a new prime ministerial bounce, in September 2022, the picture was not positive for Liz Truss. Stay informed. Similarly, the above analysis has been conducted based on the existing United Kingdom constituency boundaries. Should religious people be allowed to hold top political jobs? That lead then jumped to a staggering 24% in the three weeks after former chancellor Kwarsi Kwartengs mini budget and prior to Liz Truss resignation. The poll for the Sun found. The above analysis of general election polls has been calculated through linear average equation modelling of the latest UK opinion polls of Westminster voting intention. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". Support for Scottish independence has grown steadily over the last forty five years. In 1997, the Yes side surpassed 40% in the polls for the first time. Plaid Cymru on 1% Other on 2%. The end of 2021, showed how quickly politics can change. Business & professional services. independence? Under the current polling, Labour is on course to win seats in parts of the country where it has always been a distant spectator, such as both Bournemouth constituencies in Dorset, Macclesfield in Cheshire, Aylesbury in Buckingham, Southend East in Essex, Weston Super Mare, and Bromley and Chiselhurst in south east London. The YouGov survey for the Sunday Times of 1,088 Scottish voters shows support for the party dropped from 50% to 44% in the Holyrood constituency vote and from 40% to 36% in the regional list,. The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeon's approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. Former prime minister Boris Johnson, net zero secretary Grant Shapps, and transport secretary Mark Harper, are amongst some of the leading political figures who would lose their seats to Labour. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. In the case of Scotland, Politics.co.uk drew on the most recent Scottish voting intention polling data from Survation on 18 February. Relevance is automatically assessed so some headlines not qualifying as Scottish Opinion Poll news might appear - please feel free to contact us regarding any persistent issues. We are sorry, but the email address you entered does not appear to be valid. The latest voting intention survey puts Labour a whopping 28 points ahead of the Tories, with Rishi Sunak's party flirting with sub-20 numbers in what would be a historic low. ", Question asked: "As you may know, the UK Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold another independence referendum without the UK Government's agreement. When Johnson announced his resignation on July 7, 2022, YouGov polling showed Labour on 40% and the Tories on 29% an 11 point lead. While polls should always be treated with caution, Labour supporters have celebrated the latest figures. The result of an IndyRef today 2 March 2023. It's Andrew's Previews for. Week-in-Review: Covid sleaze is back and more politically potent than ever, Former Conservative party chairman: Sue Gray appointment proves Starmer is man of the establishment. Please read our privacy policy and terms of use before signing up. Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Scottish independence. Published by Statista Research Department , Feb 15, 2023. We list the most recent surveys: Wings Over Scotland poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 14 Feb 2023: Confirmation Bias for BeginnersFull results, By well over 2 to 1, respondents felt that they were being let down by the people who are supposed to speak for them. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Indeed Conservative support appeared to have grown slightly after Rishi Sunaks October 2021 budget. You can unsubscribe whenever you want. Scottish election 2021: Polling expert says SNP majority 'on a knife-edge' Small movements in the polls between now and May 6 could make an "important difference to the outcome", according to . However in the aftermath of fresh partygate allegations in January 2022, followed by the publication of the Gray report in February 2022, the Conservatives dropped to their lowest polling position for over a quarter of a century, falling to a point last seen during the midst of the Major government back in the 1990s. Journalism in Britain is under threat. The latest opinion polling from outlet YouGov shows respondents relatively downbeat on the state of the US economy over the next six months, anticipating that inflation will rise, there will be further interest rate hikes, and gas prices will increase. A survey for YouGov gives the SNP a vote share of 36 per cent, with Labour on 33 per cent, the Conservatives on 19 with the Lib Dems just ahead of the Greens on seven and five per cent respectively. Full question: Nicola Sturgeon says the SNP will fight the next General Election as a de facto referendum on independence. In the early part of 2023, Labour had started to increase its polling lead again and was once again approaching 50% in the polls. However, it follows two other polls published in the last 48-hours that have put Labour well ahead of the Tories. At the end of the 1970s, support for Scottish independence was polling at little more than 10%. Indeed by the time that the Scot, Gordon Brown, became prime minister in 2007, support for Scottish independence had fallen back to 24%, its lowest level for over two decades. YouGov found . Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided. Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. Topic . backed Scotland becoming an independent country. Subscribe to our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. Ben Walker is a senior data journalist at the New Statesman and writes extensively about elections and UK public opinion. The Tory lead over Labour was as high as 10% throughout April, May and June 2021. However, coinciding with the roll out of the coronavirus vaccine and the conclusion of Boris Johnsons Brexit deal at the end of 2020, the Conservative party once again opened up a significant election poll lead over Labour. Last updated Feb 21, 2023 View all Surveys (8) Todays poll found that, among those who expressed a view, 76 per cent of voters believe the Scottish governments plans to change the law on gender recognition would pose a safety risk in women-only spaces, such as prisons, hospital wards and changing rooms while some 24 per cent disagreed. Poll reveals impact of Nicola Sturgeon's resignation on voting and independence. In the early part of the 2010s, with a Conservative coalition government in Westminster, and with the SNP focused on holding an indepdence referendum in Scotland, support for Scottish independence grew further. Which party will you vote for? Read more, Editorial enquiries, please contact: [emailprotected], Commercial enquiries, please contact: [emailprotected]. and given the options of "For Scotland to become an independent country" and "For Scotland to remain as part of the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively. The company, based in Drumchapel, has reportedly ceased all trading with its annual results currently overdue by more than two months. This is the same constant level of dont knows that has been seen in most polls over the last 5 years. In doing so the Lib Dems would defeat both the deputy prime minister, Dominic Raab, and the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. Changes are shown as (vs that poll / vs last election). A poll of more than 1,000 people . The government is becoming increasingly authoritarian and our media is run by a handful of billionaires, most of whom reside overseas and all of them have strong political allegiances and financial motivations. The Conservatives have climbed by three percentage points to 33 per cent since the last poll. CalMac warns of further disruption to ferry service due to lack of backup ferries, The ferry operator is facing frequent issues as it has to constantly repair the aging fleet which is blighted with problems due to the lack of back ups, Scottish lags misuse 4.1million taxpayer-funded mobile phones more than 7,000 times in three years, More than 4,082 inmates have been caught out for using mobile phones paid for by the taxpayers to commit crimes while in prison, Iconic Glasgow bakery Mortons Rolls 'ceases all trading' after 58 years. Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided. Six reasons Labour might not win the next election alone, Urban Flight A real threat to many formerly safe seats in the Blue Wall. The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeons approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. The Conservatives meanwhile have dropped to 21% of current vote intention, down seven points. Explore what the world thinks, discover our solutions, and join our community to share your opinion. It remains to be seen how support for independence will pan out now Rishi Sunak has become prime minister, King Charles III has succeeded Elizabeth II, and as Nicola Sturgeon steps down as first minister. The former SNP Westminster leader claimed he had not spoken to Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell about the Police Scotland probe into the party's 'missing' 600k. Easy-to-digest video clips. A YouGov poll for the Times, reported today, found that nearly 50% of voters in Scotland who plan to vote Tory are doing so primarily to prevent a pro-independence majority in Holyrood. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. Scotlands political landscape after Nicola Sturgeon? Easy-to-digest video clips. "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given. The headline data used in calculating these averages has been drawn from that laid out in the published polls of a number of leading firms: YouGov, Opinium, Survation, SavantaComRes, Redfield and Wilton, Techne, Delta Poll,and Ipsos Mori. That opinion poll lead so far appears unaffected by Nicola Sturgeons announcement that she was standing down as first minister in mid February 2023. Support for Scottish independence nudged up to 50% for the first time in 2019, soon after Boris Johnson became prime minister. Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Voting Intention. Access the latest polls, survey results and articles . And 50% of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 would now vote for Labour, up from 27% at the start of this week. Stay informed. Latest opinion polls news, commentary and analysis, including political and voting intention polls, by polling companies including YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation. In the 2016 independence referendum, some 44.7% of Scottish voters backed Scotland becoming an independent country. The TLE shop is also now open, with all profits going to supporting our work. and given the options of "Yes" and "No". Energy & utilities. Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?" The poll was conducted for The Sunday Times over the past week as a review for the Scottish Prison Service found that the process of admitting transgender people to prisons should be improved in the wake of the Isla Bryson case. Sustainable shooting key to governments nature recovery plans, Press release: Shootings role outlined to the new Welsh parliament, Liz Truss says she would use nuclear warfare, Hidden history: The Nazi-Soviet pact which Russia now tries to deny, The bigotry of Ukip is swamping the Conservative party, Very quietly, the coalition tries to dismantle judicial review, Comment: Anti-porn laws allow police to target those they don't like, Ambulance unions approached for pay talks after GMB tightens derogations, Reticulated giraffe heads to London Zoo before big breeding programme move, IRC Statement on IDC Report into UK Aid spend by the Home Office, Corporation tax is the tool to incentivise net zero, Trees: most accurate data yet shows glaring disparity in tree cover across England. In the aftermath of the 2019 General Election, the Conservative party enjoyed a healthy lead in the opinion polls. The new offer will see teachers getting a 12.3% increase by April 2023, and it will rise to 14% by 2024. Polling includes only those that explicitly ask how the responder would vote in a hypothetical referendum on the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union, rather than repeating the remain/leave question of the 2016 referendum. Scottish Independence Poll Methodology: The above analysis of support for Scottish independence draws from the published polls of a number of leading firms: YouGov, Survation, ComRes, Redfield and Wilton, Panelbase, Detlapoll, Opinium and IpsosMori. The figures show the Conservatives on 25% of the vote (+1 from our previous survey on 1-2 November) to Labour's 48% (-2). Rather than drop back after IndyRef1, and with the SNP remaining in government in Edinburgh under new first minister Nicola Sturgeon, support for Scottish independence continued to rise. They do not factor in the potential for further additional regional or constituency centric swings. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. The commissions interim findings most notably increase the number of seats in the South East of England (+7), London (+3), East Anglia (+3), and the South West (+3), at the expense of Wales (-8), the West Midlands (-3), the North East -3), the North West of England (-3), and Scotland (-2). Education. Consumer packaged goods (CPG) Eating & drinking. Polling for the Welsh parliament election is less extensive than what is available in Scotland. Under this unlikely but not impossible scenario, the Electoral Calculus seat predictor says Labour would end up with 37 Scottish MPs, the SNP would have 10, the Tories seven and the Lib Dems five. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. Worst-case scenario could see 120,000 Covid-19 deaths this winter scientists, Watch: Gary Neville slams PM as he rages over brutal UC cut, French border guards warn this will be what it is like after Brexit. Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. Charities & not-for-profit. Exclusive: Scottish Labour blasted the Scottish Government for their inaction in trying to get rid of dangerous Grenfell-styling cladding on buildings across the country. Those who are likely voters, don't know, or wouldn't vote are excluded. The Boundary Commission is currently in the midst of a review designed to better equalise constituency sizes. Given that the parliamentary results in Wales and Scotland are influenced by the existence of a fourth major party (Plaid and the SNP), Politics.co.uk has undertaken separate analysis for swings in Welsh and Scottish constituencies. This lead was trending at around 8% at the point that Liz Truss became prime minister in September 2022.